Sessions, news and the calendar

A reader in Mumbai once watched USD/INR for a full afternoon and saw the price drift less than five pips. The same pair moved forty pips in twenty minutes the next morning. Nothing about the pair had changed. The hour had. Currency pairs do not move at a steady pace through the day. They move when the desks that price them are open and trading size.

For USD/INR, two windows carry most of the activity. The first is the overlap between London and New York, which falls in the Indian evening. The second is the Indian morning, when domestic banks and importers are active. Outside those windows the order book is thinner. A thin book means the price can sit still for long stretches, and then jump when one larger order arrives.

Thin hours are not automatically bad. They are just different. Spreads are often wider, and the price can move in small, uneven steps. A strategy that works in a busy hour may not survive a quiet one. The practical habit is to note the hour before you look at the chart, not after. If the hour is quiet, expect less movement and treat a sudden move with more caution.

The session clock is not fixed to Indian time. It shifts when other countries change their clocks for summer. So the busy window can move by an hour twice a year. A reader who learned that the evening is active may find the active window has moved. Check the current session times rather than relying on what was true six months ago.

A scheduled release is a number published at a known time. Examples include inflation data, central bank rate decisions, and employment figures. The time is published in advance. What is not known is the number itself, or how the market will react to it. Around the release, many participants step back. Liquidity falls. The spread widens because there are fewer orders to match.

The widening is the part that catches people out. A spread that is normally one pip can become four or more within seconds. That change happens before the price moves in any direction. If a stop is twenty pips away, a three-pip widening does not by itself hit the stop, but it reduces the room left. The price only needs to travel seventeen pips in the wrong direction for the stop to trigger.

Two releases matter most for USD/INR. The first is the US inflation report, because it shifts expectations for US interest rates. The second is the US central bank rate decision and its press conference. Both are scheduled and both are widely watched. Indian releases also move the pair, but the US events often produce the sharpest short-term spread changes because they affect the dollar side of the pair.

A release does not have to be a surprise to widen the spread. The widening happens because market makers reduce risk, not because the number is good or bad. After the first minutes, spreads usually narrow again. The reader does not need to predict the number. The reader needs to know when it is due, and to decide whether to be in the market at that moment.

Position size is the number of lots you hold. On USD/INR, one standard lot gives a pip value of ₹10. That figure is fixed for the lot size, but the cost of the spread is not fixed. If the spread is one pip, the cost to enter and exit is ₹10 on one lot. If the spread widens to four pips, the same round trip costs ₹40. The difference is ₹30.

A stop is a pre-set exit. If the stop is fifteen pips away on one lot, the stop value is ₹150. But the stop is not hit at the exact moment the price touches that level if the spread has widened. The price must cover the stop distance plus the extra spread. With a three-pip widening, the total distance is eighteen pips, which is ₹180 on one lot. That is the number that matters for risk.

This is why sizing cannot ignore the calendar. A stop that looks safe in a quiet hour may be too tight when a release is due. One response is to reduce the lot size so that a wider spread still leaves room. Another is to wait until after the release and the spread has narrowed. Both are decisions made before entry, not during the move.

Brokers differ in how they handle this. Some round the pip value. Some charge a commission on top of the spread. Some quote a different spread around releases. The numbers here are a worked example, not a quote from any broker. Check your own platform for the pip value and the spread you are actually offered.